Friday, 21 March 2014

MANIFEST AND LATENT CONFLICT



Bubur sudah jadi nasi.

Our fundamental weakness is our analytical and problem solving skills which can manifest to conflicts and eventually to a serious crisis such as this. There were many tell-tale signs that we chose to ignore and now suffer the consequence due to our ‘tidak apa’ and ‘not our problem” attitude. 

Allow me to share the article below that we may take for granted.


TIGERTALK  |  MARCH 18, 2014 3:44 PM

STORY BY
khairie@kinibiz.com
In all honesty, we have not handled the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 perfectly. But really can anyone? Regardless, Tiger thinks the incident offers invaluable lessons that Malaysians must not miss.
The national tragedy that is MH370’s disappearance has turned into a crisis management test for Putrajaya and Malaysia Airlines (MAS). But it has not been an encouraging showing.
In the jungle the apex predator (namely Tiger, thank you very much) has certain expectations to meet when it comes to handling major issues affecting its kingdom like dried-up watering holes, filthy air choking Tiger’s food sources to death and brushfires. These expectations include giving clear directions and providing consistent, accurate information.
Most of all, there must be strong leadership that translates into swift action. That has not been evident for the past 11 days since the plane went missing.
There were contradictory statements from the start which caused confusion. Agencies which should be scrambling to share information with each other with all haste appeared to be doing so lethargically. The military’s apparent lack of alarm over unidentified aircraft passing through national airspace is alarming.
And as the pilots face trial by media in absentia this week, MAS had not leaped to their defence with vigour. At the very least MAS should have attempted to protect the pilots’ good reputation until such a time that they were found guilty of anything.
Tiger does not intend to dwell overly long on the things we did wrong — there are plenty other reports outlining those amid the endless speculation. But Tiger cannot help but be particularly disappointed with how we have managed information as far as the MH370 incident goes.
After MH370 went dark and was announced missing, there should have been an official compilation of confirmed facts that the media can work from and which the public can refer to for factual information, constantly updated as new information materialises or is verified. All speculation must be acknowledged and followed-up on as either true or false, perhaps tagged as unverified in the interim.
There should also have been a single spokesperson to provide updates and take questions. But there was no such factsheet as far as Tiger is aware and no single spokesperson emerged. The result was myriad figures commenting and providing information in different capacities, sometimes contradicting each other.
This lack of proper information management added to the apparent slowness on our part in analysing and cross-checking our own military radar data with secondary radar to affirm where MH370 headed towards after going dark in the Igari area.
End result: Speculation spread like wildfire and confusion ensued as myriad information came out via press reports much faster than from official sources.
Not to mention that we had sent several neighbours’ assets on a wild goose chase in the South China Sea when it appeared that we could have determined the plane’s last known location — either one of the two corridors west of the Peninsula —much earlier.
Little wonder then that a narrative of lethargic incompetence had emerged about Malaysia’s handling of the crisis, painted by and propagated by foreign media, especially those from China. By all accounts along this vein, Putrajaya, unused to heavy scrutiny, is wilting in the face of international criticism
“The Malaysians deserve to be criticised — their handling of this has been atrocious,” said Ernest Bower, a Southeast Asia specialist at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington to Reuters. “They have no maritime domain awareness and it doesn’t look like they have a strong command and control structure and they’re not well coordinated with friends.”
To some extent, Tiger concurs that we have not given our best showing in terms of managing this disaster.
However Tiger thinks there is a runaway train heading towards Bash-Malaysia Station and there needs to be some objectivity in assessing how we performed.
It bears repeating that MH370’s disappearance is unprecedented. There had been no directly comparable incident such as this and we are pretty much in uncharted waters.
Couple that with the fact that we have not had much experience with crisis management and there were always going to be slips, confusion and mistakes, especially in the early hours of the crisis.
“Most of the local guys are pretty darned good … The problem they have is, they don’t do it a lot. We do this a lot,” Thomas Haueter, a former chief of air safety at the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), told New York Times.
So to Tiger we haven’t really dropped the ball, although admittedly we are fumbling. Our slips are inexcusable but certainly understandable in the face of an exceptional crisis. The important thing to pursue now is to push our authorities to do better, not pin blames and nitpick relentlessly.
As an aside, it is also interesting to note that as a narrative took shape saying that Beijing should and need to take control of the situation — which it cannot, since the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) protocols dictate that Malaysia has jurisdiction and must lead efforts — another narrative has been noticeable: that the US is quietly in the driving seat.
The emerging taste in Tiger’s mouth is of Malaysia being caught in a subtle contest of influence at a time when all thought should go towards finding the plane.
In any case, above all, this incident should be our lesson in crisis management. Pray we never need to call upon what we learned this time around ever again.


Wednesday, 25 September 2013

MASTROUBLESHOOTERS SALUTE DR. PUAD ZARKASHI

AirAsia, MAS rapped for ‘monopolistic’ deal


KUALA LUMPUR: AirAsia Bhd should have been slapped with a higher fine for the “monopolistic” share swap deal with Malaysia Airlines (MAS), said Umno supreme council member Datuk Dr Mohd Puad Zarkashi.

Puad also said MAS managing director and group chief executive officer Ahmad Jauhari Yahya must accept full responsibility by resigning.
He urged Ahmad Jauhari to pay the RM10 million fine imposed on the national carrier by the Malaysia Competition Commission (MyCC) from his pocket.

Puad said AirAsia, which was fined the same amount, should be made to pay more as it was the bigger beneficiary of the deal, which was ruled as unlawful by MyCC for being monopolistic.

“AirAsia, without a doubt, stands to benefit more from the share swap deal than MAS.

Tony (AirAsia group chief executive offi cer Tan Sri Tony Fernandes) is a staunch supporter of the deal, which saw an exodus of MAS workers to AirAsia.

“I can’t ask Tony to step down but in my opinion, MyCC should impose a higher fine on AirAsia.”

Stating his case for Ahmad Jauhari’s dismissal, Puad said Ahmad Jauhari had shown that he is incapable of leading.

“He should step down immediately or the government should not renew his contract, which is expected to expire this month.

“Everybody was taken aback when MAS was fined. We understand that a consultant was hired for the swap deal and we know that consultants are there for the sole purpose of making profits.

“Ahmad Jauhari should have spotted any weaknesses in the deal and objected to the consultant on the deal’s viability,” Puad told Business Times yesterday.

Ahmad Jauhari was appointed to spearhead MAS on September 14 2011 and his contract is believed to expire this month.

Earlier this month, MyCC - a unit under the Domestic Trade, Cooperatives and Consumerism Ministry - fined MAS and AirAsia for violating the Competition Act 2010.

They were found to have breached Section 4(2)(b) of the Act by entering into a Comprehensive Collaboration Framework agreement in August 2011.

The deal saw Khazanah Nasional Bhd, which owns 69 per cent of MAS, having a 10 per cent stake in AirAsia. In turn, Tune Air Sdn Bhd, AirAsia's controlling shareholder, was given a 20 per cent stake in MAS.


The deal was called off in May 2012 following heavy political and union pressure.

Friday, 13 September 2013

A GENTLE HINT TO G!

Malaysian Air Recovery Offers Bet on Government Exit: Real M&A

Malaysian Airline System Bhd. (MAS) offers a bargain investment for traders willing to bet on a sale, as a turnaround stokes calls for the government to exit its stake.
Malaysian Air fell to an all-time low this year amid competition from budget airline AirAsia Bhd. (AIRA) Now the company is projected to post its first profit in four years in 2014 on record revenue, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. With the carrier on the mend, the government may seek to shed its majority ownership by selling or breaking up the $1.6 billion airline, said Malayan Banking Bhd.
“Selling parts of the company is definitely viable,” said Ang Kok Heng, who helps manage $428 million of assets, including Malaysian Air shares, as chief investment officer at Phillip Capital Management Sdn. in Kuala Lumpur. “They must show some results before people are confident to buy. ”Among those calling for a sale are former Premier Mahathir Mohamad, who oversaw Malaysian Air’s initial public offering in 1985, and the executive -- now a minister -- who previously returned the carrier to profit in 2006. While the government may wait for the airline’s shares to recover before seeking buyers, RHB Research Institute Sdn. said potential acquirers include local billionaire Syed Mokhtar Al-Bukhary, who last year persuaded officials to sell him the national carmaker.

Stay Out

Former Malaysian Air Managing Director Idris Jala, who is now a minister in the office of current Premier Najib Razak, last month said the government should stay out of the airline business, sending the stock up 7.9 percent the next day. Idris returned the company to profit on a quarterly basis in 2006.
The state’s 69 percent stake in the carrier is held by investment division Khazanah Nasional Bhd.
Mahathir, Malaysia’s longest-serving leader, backed the idea of a sale, telling state news service Bernama that a private owner would work harder to avoid losses than the government. Several groups have submitted takeover offers, The Star newspaper said Aug. 14.
Malaysian Air is forecast to generate net income of 88 million ringgit ($26 million) next year fromsales of 15.6 billion ringgit, according to analysts’ forecasts compiled by Bloomberg. After an estimated loss this year, a profit in 2014 would end a three-year, cumulative loss of 3.4 billion ringgit, the data show.
“It will make more sense for Khazanah to sell at that time,” once the company, whose stock ticker is MAS, has restored profitability, said Jerry Lee, an analyst at RHB Research in Kuala Lumpur. “By that time, the share price has rallied. MAS are doing the right thing with their turnaround.”

Filling Seats

The shares fetched just 32 sen last week in Kuala Lumpur, down from 2.107 ringgit in June 2007 when Idris was in charge. Malaysian Air is trading at just 0.19 times sales, near its low of 0.15 in June, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
The plan to stem losses hinges on retiring older, less economical aircraft and leaving fewer seats empty on flights to Asia’s major tourist destinations.
Najib, the Malaysian premier, said last month the government won’t sell its stake and the airline’s turnaround “cannot happen overnight.”
The government “needs to see tangible and credible improvement and the share price to reflect that,” said Mohshin Aziz, a Kuala Lumpur-based analyst at Maybank. “Only then will they start to sell it off.”
Khazanah probably wants at least 60 sen for each Malaysian Air share, according to Mohshin, almost double last week’s price. Malaysian Air investors bought more shares for 23 sen each in May in a rights issue to raise 3.07 billion ringgit, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Suggested Buyer

DRB-Hicom Bhd (DRB), the Malaysian conglomerate and auto dealer controlled by Syed Mokhtar, has bought at least two other stakes from Khazanah in the past two years. Based in Shah Alam, outside the capital, DRB in 2012 bought Khazanah’s 43 percent stake in carmaker Proton Holdings Bhd. for 1.29 billion ringgit. A year earlier, DRB purchased the state investment fund’s 32 percent stake in the national postal company.
A representative for Malaysian Air declined to comment on the possibility of a sale. Khazanah and DRB both said in e-mailed statements that they don’t comment on speculation.
“If there was a genuine attempt by a Syed Mokhtar Bukhary company to buy MAS, the resistance wouldn’t be as bad,” said Maybank’s Mohshin. “The notion of a national airline is an outdated one. There’s no need for it anymore.”

Spinoff Options

There aren’t any government-owned national airlines in the U.S. and such entities are becoming more rare in Europe, according to Mohshin. That trend will spread to Asia, he said. Even without an outright sale, the government could raise billions of ringgit listing some of the airline’s units that do make money, he said.
Malaysian Air’s engineering and maintenance business could fetch a valuation as high as 1.98 billion ringgit, and the airport terminal services unit could be valued at 1.07 billion ringgit, according to Mohshin’s estimates. The airline’s low-cost rural service Firefly could be worth as much as 1.78 billion ringgit on the stock market, he said.
“I would be open or even excited if they were to venture down this sort of route,” Mohshin said.
All told, those profitable units have a combined value as high as 4.8 billion ringgit, based on Maybank’s estimates, equivalent to most of the airline’s total market value now of 5.3 billion ringgit. The remaining pieces are the unprofitable main airline and the cargo unit.

Adding Value

“You can add a lot of value,” Sharifah Farah, an analyst at Affin Securities Sdn. in Kuala Lumpur, said in a phone interview. “At least the profit-making side would not be pulled down by the main operation.”
Singapore Airlines Ltd. (SIA) in 2000 sold stakes in SIA Engineering Co. (SIE) and Singapore Airport Terminal Services Ltd. (SATS), known as SATS, in initial public offerings. They now have a combined market value of $6.7 billion.
Previous efforts to scale back state control of Malaysian Air failed. The government agreed to bail out the unprofitable airline in 2000 by buying back a 29 percent stake from businessman Tajudin Ramli for more than double the airline’s stock price at the time.
In May 2012, Khazanah reversed a share swap that had handed 21 percent of Malaysian Air to the parent of AirAsia, the budget carrier run by Tony Fernandes. The about-face followed complaints by Malaysian Air’s biggest union.

Less Interference

Malaysian Air employees are less productive than their counterparts at neighboring airlines, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. They each generate an average of $222,000 in revenue, less than half the figure at Singapore Airlines, the data show. Workers at Thai Airways International Pcl and PT Garuda Indonesia Persero (GIAA) each bring in more revenue.
That may not put off buyers who see an opportunity to increase efficiencies.
“Can MAS be revamped and made more competitive, even profitable?” said Shukor Yusof, a Singapore-based aviation analyst at Standard & Poor’s. “Absolutely, provided the right people with the right motives and mindset run the carrier and with little government interference.”

Saturday, 13 July 2013

MAS CANCER HAS SPREAD TO GOMEN!


Day After Day Gomen Doing The Moron Things.
Folks, makin lama Gomen kita makin mati akal. They are doing mindboggling things with little or no thinking put in. Then when it becomes too controversial they either cancel it, "tarik balik', drop the subject or just Flip Flop. 

1. The Gomen's overeagerness on the TPPA shows the Gomen really does not know what is best for the country.  The Gomen is drifting in La La land. 

2. Now the Gomen is considering crafting another law to replace the Emergency Ordinance that has been abolished.  Who asked you to abolish the Emergency Ordinance and the ISA in the first place? 

No one asked for the EO to be abolished. The Pembangkang only asked to abolish the ISA. The abolishment of the ISA plus the EO took even the Pembangkang by surprise. Pembangkang pun terkejut. Now the Gomen itself says crime is rising because the EO has been abolished !! Tak nampak bodoh ke bang?  

3. After that the Gomen tried to rush through the "Unilateral Religious Conversion Bill" - another piece of really tak masuk akal legislation. Only to create another huge controversy and then having to "tarik balik" that  Bill also. Another flip flop - nampak bodoh lagi. What is wrong with the Gomen? 

4. Then the Gomen went and established diplomatic ties with the Vatican. Some guy wearing a dress representing the Vatican is now in town and saying silly things that have only stirred up more useless, totally useless religious tension in this perfect land.  You can click on this link here to read more : 


Pasal apa pi jemput mangkuk hayun macam ini masuk negara kita? 

Every other day the Gomen seems to be shooting itself in the foot (or in the @$$). Cant they get anything right?  

5.  Norman Fernandez has already spoken about the Gomen's plan to give refugees jobs.

6.  And here is another controversial action - now the Gomen wants NON-MUSLIM students in private universities to study Islamic Civilisation as compulsory TITAS subjects. Pasal apa pula? 

......
(They changed the livery (colour and appearance) on the MAS A380 Airbus  so that the stationery, crockery and napkin suppliers can make money.  Petronas and some Ministries have changed their logo to give new contracts to the stationery suppliers and ad agencies. Its all about someone making easy money.) Janganlah buat kerja bodoh. Buat lah kerja dengan baik.  

Kalau bukan senang nak jadi pandai macam itu juga bukan susah nak jadi 'tak bodoh'. 


Friday, 7 June 2013

Throwing good money after bad!

MIDF Reseach downgrades MAS to "Sell", target price 27 sen
Friday June 7, 2013 MYT 2:45:01 PM

KUALA LUMPUR: MIDF Research has downgraded Malaysian Airline System Bhd (MAS) to “Sell” from “Neutral” and reduced its target price to 27 sen from 34 sen due to its weak prospects.

“Due to the worsening market yields and sticky high operating expenses, we opine that it is improbable for MAS to be able to turn around its business by financial year 2013-2014 as we had earlier expected,” it said on Friday.

It also revised its financial year 2013 and 2014 forecast to a net loss of RM762.5mil and RM187.5 4 respectively and expects the turnaround to happen only in 2015.

MIDF said international “headwinds” will continue to weigh down MAS business turnaround plan despite its recent membership into the Oneworld alliance and ongoing fleet renewal plan.

“In the domestic market, MAS also faces intensifying competitions from accelerated capacity expansion by AirAsia and the launch of Malindo Air,” it said.

It noted MAS regional full service carriers are pursuing the strategy of sacrificing yield in return for a higher load factor.

“Thus under immense international competitions and yield pressure, MAS fare yield dropped by 4.7% on-year to 24.2 sen in 1Q13 despite a leap in passenger load factor by 3.6% points to 76.6%,” it said.

MIDF added MAS have already replaced its entire fleet of B747 and a large portion of its B737-400 with the newly acquired A380 and B737-800 models respectively.

“Nonetheless, there is still a fleet of 17 near aging B777-200ER with an average age of 13.6 years. The management is considering either Airbus A350 or Boeing B787 Dreamliners to replace these long-haul aircrafts,” it said.

Friday, 31 May 2013

STOP SPINNING,

GET BACK TO WORK AND FIX MAS!

"Sementara itu, BN pada hakikatnya mendahului pencapaian undi popular berbanding tiga parti pembangkang iaitu DAP, PKR dan Pas yang bertanding atas tiket masing-masing."

Hakikat sebenar tentang undi popular yang dijaja pembangkang bagi mengelirukan rakyat hanyalah diperoleh melalui pengundi-pengundi Cina dari empat buah negeri yang mempunyai ramai penduduk kaum itu.

Memetik blog http://syedsoutsidethebox.blogspot.com/2013/05/pakatan-rakyat-lost-popular-vote-in-9. pembangkang hanya memperoleh kelebihan undi di lima buah negeri yang mana empat daripadanya iaitu Perak, Pulau Pinang, Selangor dan Kuala Lumpur merupakan negeri-negeri yang mempunyai populasi kaum Cina terbesar.

Satu lagi negeri yang turut memihak kepada pembangkang ialah Kelantan, hanya memperoleh kelebihan 57,332 undi yang dianggap sangat tipis.
"Di mana-mana negeri yang mana orang Melayu adalah dominan seperti di Kelantan, Barisan Nasional (BN) sebenarnya telah memenangi undi mereka.
"Sebaliknya di empat negeri tersebut, kelebihan undi yang mereka peroleh daripada kaum Cina begitu ketara, contohnya Perak dengan 111,893 undi, Pulau Pinang (263,004), Selangor (359,256) dan Kuala Lumpur (198,084)," kata blog itu yang membuat analisis melalui jadual undi popular yang dikeluarkan oleh portal propembangkang, Malaysiakini.

Menurut blog itu, jumlah kesemua lebihan undi yang memihak kepada pembangkang di kelima-lima negeri tersebut adalah 989,569 sedangkan undi popular yang mengatasi BN di seluruh negara hanya 361,101.

"Jelas di sini, 989,569 undi majoriti yang pembangkang peroleh telah disusutkan oleh BN dengan kelebihan undi di sembilan negeri lain, menyebabkan undi majoriti akhirnya hanya tinggal 361,101.
"Dengan majoriti 989,569, mereka sepatutnya boleh menang besar. Tetapi kenapa mereka masih juga tidak menang? Ini kerana sebahagian besar undi itu hanya diperoleh daripada pengundi Cina dari keempat-empat negeri tersebut," kata blog itu.
Daripada analisis tersebut, blog itu menyimpulkan bahawa pembangkang tidak mewakili undi majoriti daripada pengundi Melayu.
"Sebab itu pembangkang tidak boleh menang pilihan raya umum ini, mereka tiada undi daripada orang Melayu," kata blog itu.


Sementara itu, BN pada hakikatnya mendahului pencapaian undi popular berbanding tiga parti pembangkang iaitu DAP, PKR dan Pas yang bertanding atas tiket masing-masing.

Saturday, 1 December 2012

FOOLS NEVER LEARN Part 2


MAS stock falls 16%, analysts doubt financing capabilities
Presenna Nambiar 

PETALING JAYA (Nov 29, 2012): 

"We were taken by surprise on the rights issue proposal. It indicates that MAS may have issues securing financing to meet the group's huge near-term capital requirement amounting to RM9 billion," Alliance Research Sdn Bhd said in a report yesterday.
"We believe investors will be jittery of such a large cash call amid continued operating losses.
"While the cash call will help to address the short-term funding requirement and liquidity needs, it does little to address the losses at the operating level."


Malaysia Airlines' (MAS) stock fell more than 16% on news that it is yet again seeking capital injection from major shareholder, Khazanah Nasional Bhd and cancelling 90 sen of its par value.
The national airline, which was the most actively traded counter yesterday, saw more than RM560 million of its market capitalisation wiped out at the end of trading activities.
The stock closed 17 sen down at 84 sen, with some 77.2 million shares done.
MAS had on Tuesday announced plans to have a rights issue to raise up to RM3.1 billion for working capital (RM1.3 billion), capital expenditure (RM987 million) and repay borrowings (RM777 million).
It also plans to shave off its share premium account in a bid to cut its accumulated losses, buy back 10 Boeing 737-400s originally on lease for RM64 million to meet network requirements prior to the delivery of its new 737-800 fleet and to save on high maintenance costs it would need to incur to deliver the planes back to its lessor in mint condition.
Analysts are still cautious on the MAS turnaround story, despite it beating the consensus target on core losses, overshadowed by another rights issue and a reduction in par value of its shares from RM1 per share to 10 sen a share.
The airline registered a small operating profit of RM3.9 million on revenue of RM3.3 billion for the third quarter ended Sept 30 2012 due to lower jet fuel prices and fuel consumption as a result of a 7% year-on-year reduction in capacity available-seat-kilometre (ASK) and better utilisation of newer and more fuel-efficient aircraft.
"We were taken by surprise on the rights issue proposal. It indicates that MAS may have issues securing financing to meet the group's huge near-term capital requirement amounting to RM9 billion," Alliance Research Sdn Bhd said in a report yesterday.
"We believe investors will be jittery of such a large cash call amid continued operating losses.
"While the cash call will help to address the short-term funding requirement and liquidity needs, it does little to address the losses at the operating level."
Alliance opined that based on the indicative issue price of 60 sen as disclosed in the company's announcement, the proposed rights issue will be at a steep discount to current price, while the dilution is enormous given its expectation of a 3-for-2 rights issue in order to raise RM3.1 billion.
The cash call is the third by MAS since 2007.
MAS raised RM1.55 billion and RM2.67 billion from its rights issue in 2007 and 2009 respectively, to finance new aircraft and pare down debts.
HwangDBS Vickers Research Sdn Bhd said there is execution risk in MAS trying to turn around its business, and the aviation landscape in Malaysia will become more competitive with the emergence of Malindo Airways next year.
The research firm has trimmed its FY12 core net loss forecast to RM567 million from RM961 million previously, after raising MAS' passenger load factor from 70% to 75%.
HwangDBS is expecting MAS to register stronger performance in the fourth quarter of 2012 due to the year-end holidays.
Kenanga Research said with the new fleet in operation, MAS will be able to make a meaningful turnaround.
The airline is to receive 12 new 737-800s and three new A330-300s in 2013. It has already added 14 737-800s, eight A330-300s and four A380s to its fleet since 2010.
Kenanga is raising its FY12 estimate higher by 30% from a RM764 million net loss and RM1.2 billion revenue previously, with a new RM482 million core net profit target for FY13 estimate, as it expects MAS to be able to recover its yield and get a higher load via the new fleet.
"In the near term, any positive share price movement is likely to be muted due to the negative sentiment on its proposed capital reduction and rights issue announcement," it added.
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